Track: B4. Navigating Climate Risks: Modeling and Risk Assessment

Background/Objectives

Study of sea level rise at coastal superfund sites is crucial because it addresses the escalating risks posed by sea level rise and climate change on coastal areas. Understanding the intricate interactions between groundwater table rise, storm surge, and permanent inundation through GIS-based modeling provides essential insights for proactive adaptation. The outcomes inform effective planning, risk mitigation, and resource allocation. By exploring these dynamics, the study contributes valuable knowledge to enhance resilience strategies, ultimately aiding in the sustainable management of coastal sites facing the impacts of climate change.

Approach/Activities

Using GIS to conduct modeling, in conjunction with the sea level change scenarios from the DRSL database for future plausible scenarios, showing the effects of sea level rise on coastal Superfund sites with regard to seawater inundation as permanent inundation, storm surges as transient inundation, and groundwater table rise. Sites are evaluated using digital elevation models specific to the area and creating shapefiles to use for drafting maps illustrating inundation, storm surges, and groundwater emergence. Objectives include integrating spatial data layers, employing advanced geospatial analytics, and developing predictive models to delineate vulnerable areas, evaluate risk factors, and provide decision-makers with spatially explicit information for effective mitigation and adaptation strategies in the face of changing environmental conditions. This provides a visual for modeled potential sea level rise to better anticipate long-term planning needs and better equip facilities to address concerns from regulators and the public.

Results/Lessons Learned

The challenge at hand involved developing a comprehensive GIS-based modeling approach to address the intricate relationships among groundwater emergence, storm surge dynamics, and inundation patterns in the context of sea level rise and climate change. This problem necessitates the integration of diverse geospatial data sets and advanced analytical techniques to accurately depict the spatial complexities associated with these environmental factors. The goal is to provide a holistic understanding of the potential impacts on coastal sites, facilitating informed decision-making for adaptation and mitigation measures. Initial results highlight the significance of incorporating GIS in modeling groundwater emergence, storm surge, and inundation concerning sea level rise and climate change. Lessons learned include the need for high-resolution spatial data, enough consistent groundwater data to span one tidal epoch, and interdisciplinary collaboration. The GIS-based model facilitates the identification of vulnerable zones, aiding in the formulation of targeted strategies for climate resilience and adaptation. Additionally, the project underscores the importance of continuous monitoring and updates to accommodate evolving environmental conditions.