Theme: 06. Petroleum and Heavy Hydrocarbon Site Strategies

Topic Area: 6d. Natural Source Zone Depletion

Formatted Title:

Forecasting the Future: Leveraging NSZD and Real-Time Data for Efficient Petroleum Hydrocarbon Management

Background/Objectives:

Environmental and economic challenges prompt the need for efficient management of inadvertent releases of petroleum products into soils and groundwater. Recognizing the potential of natural source zone depletion (NSZD) and natural attenuation (NA) in mitigating such risks, our study focuses on forecasting the remaining refined petroleum products within source zones, considering NSZD as the primary governing process. The objective is to enhance decision-making strategies in managing contaminated sites by providing reliable forecasts for the depletion of petroleum contaminants.

Approach/Activities:

This research introduces a novel approach for continuous forecasting of remaining petroleum products in contaminated sites, leveraging principles from upstream oil and gas production forecasting. We employ cryogenic coring techniques for initial quantification of contaminants, addressing common challenges in sample recovery and representation. Continuous monitoring of NSZD rates is achieved through heat generation measurements via in-situ temperature sensors, connected to cloud-based data platforms across 10 distinct impacted sites. By integrating real-time data and initial product estimates, we utilize regression models to predict the timeframe for near-complete contaminant depletion, informing efficient, goal-oriented remediation efforts.

Results/Lessons Learned:

NSZD rates demonstrate significant consistency over time, even as specific LNAPL volumes diminish, suggesting a zero-order process with respect to these volumes. Interestingly, variables such as soil permeability, specific product volumes, or depth to source zones did not correlate with NSZD rates, underscoring the hypothesis that electron transport through sequential anaerobic and aerobic reactions dictates these rates. Forecasting methodologies, akin to data-driven weather predictions or petroleum decline curve analyses, were employed, enhancing the precision of these longevity estimations as the forecast horizon narrows. Moreover, the study reveals that traditional active recovery strategies have minimal impact on product depletion compared to NSZD. It suggests a shift to enhanced NSZD (ENSZD) methods, like soil venting and phytoremediation, especially in areas with natural venting or dense foliage, to accelerate attenuation and target significant LNAPL volumes more effectively. This approach reimagines petroleum contaminant management, emphasizing reducing source zone longevity and using ENSZD to expedite this process efficiently.

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Ayan Chakraborty