Theme: 2. Mitigation

Topic Area: 2a. Market Mechanisms (Technology & Process) for Carbon Neutrality

Background/Objectives:

The 2023 Billion-ton Report is the latest in a series of assessments of the biophysical, economic, and spatial availability of US biomass resources. In support of national decarbonization goals, the mission of the United States Department of Energy Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) is to develop and demonstrate technologies to accelerate net greenhouse gas emissions reductions through the cost-effective, sustainable use of biomass and waste feedstocks across the U.S economy. This report assesses the potential for renewable biomass resources to support DOE decarbonization goals by displacing fossil resources such as petroleum with biogenic resources which, when managed efficiently, have a lower carbon intensity than petroleum sources of carbon, thereby leading to lower net greenhouse gas emissions.

Approach/Activities:

The 2023 Billion-ton Report is a product of collaboration across several national laboratories and universities. The report includes updated modeling of US agricultural, forestland, waste, and algae resources. Assessing agricultural and forestland resources employs partial-equilibrium economic models that account for land area, competing demands for conventional products, resource growth potential, and productions costs. Waste resource assessment accounts for competing demands for current uses and economic accessibility. Algae assessment includes biophysical modeling and techno-economic analysis. The result is an assessment of the spatial distribution of potential biomass resources and resource costs in terms of market maturity. Discussion of environmantal sustainabilty constraints, risks, and opportunities to enhance envronmental services is included.

Results/Lessons Learned:

Results are summarized by level of market maturity. The current bioeconomy uses over 300 million dry tons per year of biomass for fuels, power, and co-products. The near-term market scenario identifies unused wastes and byproducts that could more than double biomass production to over 600 million dry tons per year of biomass. The mature-market scenarios with the addition of purpose-grown energy crops can triple the current bioeconomy to produce ~1.2-1.4 billion dry tons per year, while meeting projected demands for food, feed, and fiber products. Micro- and macro-algae resources have potential to add over 200 million tons per year of production. The resulting portfolio of resources represents a diverse mix of feedstocks with varying attributes in terms of price, quality, convertibility, spatial distribution, and market readiness. Results are within specified environmental and economic sustainability constraints. Risk of deviating from these constraints is discussed in the report. An online data portal provides results of production potential, price, and associated attributes at county-level resolution.

Michael Shell

Affiliation

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Overview of the 2023 Billion-Ton Report: U.S. Biomass Resource Assessment